Earthquakes Impossible to Predict Accurately
An Italian Scientist Claims Radon Gas Foretold of Quake
Apr 7, 2009
It is not possible to predict earthquakes with any degree of accuracy. Nick Squires reported in The Telegraph on April 6, 2009 that “Mr. Giuliani told locals to evacuate their houses and posted a video on YouTube in which he said a build-up of radon gas around the seismically active area suggested a major earthquake was imminent.” But, his warning came several weeks before the actual disaster. Geology Professor Kim Hannula, writing on ScienceBlog (April 7, 2009) points out that, “According to some news reports Giuliani’s prediction was for a 24-hour period last week (March 29, to be exact)…Apparently, he also got the place wrong: his prediction was for an earthquake 30 km away, in Sulmora.”
Accurate Predictions Impossible
The United States Geological Service (USGS) says what all seismologists say, earthquakes can only be predicted within a zone of probability. On its About Earthquakes website the USGS says that no “scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes.”
Scientists can say that a fault line where earthquakes occur is under stress, but they can’t say when the two sides will break free. They can say that there’s maybe a 65 percent probability that an event will occur in, say, the next five years. But, predicting that a 6.5 magnitude quake will happen next Thursday at 8.14 a.m. at the corner of Main and Maple simply can’t be done.
Can Animals Predict Quakes?
Some animals do appear to sense that an earthquake is about to happen and start to get agitated and nervous. They may pick up low-frequency electromagnetic waves that humans can’t detect.
There is a report of unusual animal behaviour prior to a significant earthquake from Greece in 373 BCE. The USGS says, “Rats, weasels, snakes, and centipedes reportedly left their homes and headed for safety several days before a destructive earthquake. Anecdotal evidence abounds of animals, fish, birds, reptiles, and insects exhibiting strange behaviour anywhere from weeks to seconds before an earthquake.”
Scientists do not put any faith in the predictive ability of animals; they even question their own abilities.
Mary Lou Zoback is a geophysicist. In June 2004, she told the PBS program "Online NewsHour" that about 100 earth scientists from a variety of disciplines studied the San Francisco Bay area. After all the investigations she said, “We felt that there was about a 62% chance – now, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the precise number – but a 62% chance of a damaging earthquake over the next 30 years.”
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